Retirement Planner (Monte Carlo Simulator)
Estimate the probability your retirement savings will last, by simulating thousands of possible market return sequences across equity, debt, and fixed deposits.
In today's value.
How is your money invested?
Return and volatility assumptions are set automatically from typical India figures.
One-time costs (optional)
Enter how much you've saved and what you'll spend a year to see your odds.
Understand your plan
What you're actually planning
Retirement planning is one question: will the money you've saved keep paying for your life after the salary stops? Three numbers drive everything — what you have, what you spend, and how long you'll need it. Everything else (returns, inflation, taxes) decides how those three interact. The uncomfortable part is that you must plan for a lifespan you can't know and markets you can't predict. That's not a reason to skip planning — it's the reason to plan with ranges instead of single guesses.
Why averages lie
Most calculators assume markets return a steady average — say 10% every single year. Real markets never do that, and the order of good and bad years matters enormously once you're withdrawing. A crash in your first retirement year forces you to sell cheap, and the portfolio may never catch up — even if the long-run average ends up fine. The same crash twenty years in barely matters. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it's why two retirees with identical savings and identical average returns can end up in completely different places.
How the simulation works
Instead of one average future, we generate 1,000 of them. Each year, each simulated future draws a random equity and debt return from ranges based on historical behavior — some years great, some terrible, most in between. Your spending (grown by inflation, with medical costs growing faster), any big one-time events, your income, and taxes all play out year by year. We count how many of the 1,000 futures make it to the end. That count is your success probability. Every assumption we use is listed below — nothing is hidden.
The five risks that actually sink retirements
Sequence risk — bad markets early, while withdrawing. Inflation risk — 1 lakh a month feels different at 6% vs 8% inflation compounded over 25 years. Longevity risk — living longer than the plan; wonderful, and expensive. Medical risk — healthcare inflation runs 2-3x general inflation and arrives late, exactly when the portfolio is smallest. Behavior risk — panic-selling equity in a crash, or refusing to trim spending in lean years. The tool models the first four; the fifth is yours.
What to do with your number
Don't chase 100% — it usually means over-saving and under-living. Most planners treat 80-90% as a sound target, because real people adjust: they trim a trip in a bad year, and that flexibility is worth several percentage points (try the guardrails toggle). Use the stress chips to find your plan's weak point. Revisit yearly — a plan is a snapshot, not a contract.
Disclosures
Educational tool, not advice
This calculator is provided for education and general illustration only. It does not consider your complete financial situation and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice, or a recommendation of any product, asset allocation, or strategy. ForeA Tools is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser, and nothing on this page should be treated as personalized advice. For decisions about your money, consult a qualified, registered professional.
Simulations are illustrations, not predictions
Results are generated by random simulation using simplified assumptions about returns, volatility, inflation, taxes, and fees. Actual market behavior, tax rules, and your circumstances will differ. A high success probability is not a guarantee that money will last; a low one is not a prediction that it won't. Past patterns do not assure future results.
Simplifications
Taxes are approximated as a single effective rate; specific products, exact tax slabs, transaction costs, and the relationship between inflation and asset returns are not modeled. Default assumptions are periodically reviewed but may be outdated at any time.
Your data
Calculations run entirely in your browser and are never sent to our servers. This site uses Cloudflare Web Analytics to count page visits; it does not receive your inputs or results.